The Future of Malaria

In prefacing their article, Nabi and Qader write that "since malaria is greatly influenced by climatic conditions because of its direct relationship with the mosquito population, it is widely assumed that its incidence is likely to increase in a future warmer world." However, they say this assumption is "quite controversial and strongly debated." Nabi and Qader therefore set forth to analyze both sides of the global warming/malaria incidence debate, considering the climatic conditions that impact the spread of the disease (temperature, rainfall and humidity), as well as the host of pertinent non-climatic factors that play important roles in its epidemiology (the presence or absence of mosquito control programs, the availability or non-availability of malaria-fighting drugs, changing resistances to drugs, the quality of vector control, changes in land use, the availability of good health services, human population growth, human migrations, international travel, and standard of living).

The two researchers found that "global warming alone will not be of a great significance in the upsurge of malaria unless it is accompanied by a deterioration in other parameters like public health facilities, resistance to anti-malarial drugs, decreased mosquito control measures," and etc. Hence, they say that "no accurate prediction about malaria can truly be made," since "it is very difficult to estimate what the other factors will be like in the future." They do note, however, that mosquito-borne diseases were a major public health problem in the United States from the 1600s to the mid-1900s, "with occasional epidemics." By the middle of the 20th century, however, they state that "malaria disappeared from the country along with the other mosquito borne diseases like Dengue and Yellow fever," and they state that "this decline was attributed to overall improvements in living conditions and better public health measures," the continuance of both which have kept these diseases at bay throughout the latter half of the 20th century as well, even though that period experienced what climate alarmists describe as "unprecedented global warming."

In light of these several observations, plus many others from all around the world -- which clearly establish the overriding importance of a country's standard of living and what it brings with it in terms of health-promoting services -- Nabi and Qader conclude that "as public health workers, it would be more justifiable for us to exert our efforts on these other [non-climatic] parameters for the eradication and control of malaria."