Cyclones of the Tropical South Pacific
Terry, J.P. and Gienko, G. 2010. Climatological aspects of South Pacific tropical cyclones, based on analysis of the RSMC-Nadi (Fiji) regional archive. Climate Research 42: 223-233.
Results indicated that "no linear trends were revealed in cyclogenesis origins, cyclone duration, track length or track azimuth over the four decades of records," but the authors report that "anomalous activity for one or more cyclone parameters occurred in 1976, 1981, 1983, 1991, 1998, 2001-2002 and 2003."
In discussing the first of these findings, the two researchers say that the lack of linear trends in the four cyclone parameters they analyzed "implies that there is as yet no evidence for climate-change forcing of these storm characteristics over recent historical times." And in discussing the additional implications of the hit-and-miss record of anomalous cyclone activity, they write that "South Pacific island nations will remain most vulnerable to episodes of anomalous cyclone behavior, and that such deviations away from average conditions are likely to continue to be experienced at irregular intervals on an inter-annual basis." Last of all, and "most importantly," as they continue, Terry and Gienko conclude that "this variability will remain much more of an influence across the tropical South Pacific region than any small changes linked to long-term trends in cyclone behavior," of which latter trends, so far, there are none.