Changes in Frequency of Heavy Rain Events Over Hawaii
Elison Timm, O., Diaz, H.F., Giambelluca, T.W., and Takahashi, M. 2011. Projection of changes in the frequency of heavy rain events over Hawaii based on leading Pacific climate modes. Journal of Geophysical Research 116, D04109 doi:10.1029/2010JD014923.
The study further applies the regression technique to the projected values of the two indices obtained from a suite of climate models used in the IPCC AR4 (2007) Documents. These models project only small changes in these indices and when applied to heavy rain events show only small changes in future heavy rain events with large uncertainty, this uncertainty stemming from disparities among the climate models.
The findings of this study portray substantial uncertainty in future projections of heavy rain events over Hawaii. A couple of other recent studies on 'extreme precipitation' over the UK (Rodda et al., 2010) and over the Zhujiang (Pearl) River basin, China (Gemmer et al., 2010) suggest that extreme precipitation events are driven more by natural climate variability and NOT by human-added CO2 induced warming.
Gemmer, M., Fischer, T., Jiang, T., Su, B. and Liu, L.L. 2011. Trends in precipitation extremes in the Zhujiang River basin, South China. Journal of Climate 24: 750-761.
Rodda, J.C., Little, M.A., Harvey, J.E. and McSharry, P.E. 2010. A comparative study of the magnitude, frequency and distribution of intense rainfall in the United Kingdom. International Journal of Climatology 30: 1776-1783.