Food Demand and Availability for a Bird of Northern Finland
Vatka, E., Orell, M. and Rytkonen, S. 2011. Warming climate advances breeding and improves synchrony of food demand and food availability in a boreal passerine. Global Change Biology 17: 3002-3009.
Working with data collected in northern Finland over the period 1975-2009 within coniferous, deciduous and mixed forests of varying ages -- including young stands, swamps and clear cuttings -- the three Finnish scientists studied "changes in the timing of breeding in the willow tit (Poecile montanus), and timing of its caterpillar food resource in relation to warming springs," using "generalized linear mixed effect models to study the importance of synchrony between the timing of breeding in willow tits and the caterpillar food availability on the breeding success, measured as nestling survival rate and mean nestling weight."
In contrast to prior no change results and poorer synchrony findings, Vatka et al. report that they not only "found no signs of emerging asynchrony," but that they found that synchrony actually improved during the study, and that it had moderate positive effects on breeding success, adding that the observed change in better synchrony mirrors results from the coal tit in the Netherlands, citing the work of Both et al. (2009).
Clearly, all bird species would not be "losers," in terms of food supply-and-demand for their hatchlings, if global warming were to begin again after its recent several-year hiatus. Many species would likely not be affected at all, in fact, while others may even be benefited by such a climate change.
Bauer, Z., Trnka, M., Bauerova, J., Mozny, M., Stpanek, P., Bartosova, L. Alud, Z. 2010. Changing climate and the phenological response of great tit and collared flycatcher populations in floodplain forest ecosystems in Central Europe. International Journal of Biometeorology 54: 99-111.
Both, C., van Asch, M., Bijlsma, R.G., van den Burg, A.B. and Visser, M.E. 2009. Climate change and unequal phenological changes across four trophic levels: constraints or adaptations? Journal of Animal Ecology 78: 73-83.
Cresswell, W. and McCleery, R. 2003. How great tits maintain synchronization of their hatch date with food supply in response to long-term variability in temperature. Journal of Animal Ecology 72: 356-366.
Visser, M.E., Holleman, L.J.M. and Gienapp, P. 2006. Shifts in caterpillar biomass phenology due to climate change and its impact on the breeding biology of an insectivorous bird. Oecologia 147: 164-172.
Visser, M.E., van Noordwijk, A.J., Tinbergen, J.M. and Lessells, C.M. 1998. Warmer springs lead to mistimed reproduction in great tits (Parus major). Proceedings of the Royal Society of London, Series B 265: 1867-1870.