Tropical Storms in the North Atlantic: Projections and Observations
Villarini, G., Vecchi, G.A., Knutson, T.R., Zhao, M. and Smith, J.A. 2011a. North Atlantic Tropical Storm Frequency Response to Anthropogenic Forcing: Projections and Sources of Uncertainty. Journal of Climate 24: 3224-3238.
Villarini, G., Vecchi, G.A., Knutson, T.R. and Smith, J.A. 2011b. Is the recorded increase in short-duration North Atlantic tropical storms spurious? Journal of Geophysical Research 116: D10114, doi:10.1029/2010JD015493.
In the second paper, Villarini et al. (2011b) examine the recorded increase in tropical storms from the middle of the 20th century, finding that the increase is mostly due to "short-duration" storms lasting two days or less. The study used a statistical model combined with current understanding of the physical processes (of tropical storm formation) to analyze all short duration storms over the period 1878-2008. The study concludes that the large increase in tropical storms from the 1940s is likely due to changes in observing system of these storms and does not suggest any detectable climate change signal. The rapid increase in short-duration storm count since 1944 is attributed to the beginning of the aircraft reconnaissance period to track and locate North Atlantic storms. The improved observing technology for detecting tropical storms has substantially inflated the storm count since the middle of the 20th century.
Mann, M.E. and Emanuel, K.A. 2006. Atlantic hurricane trends linked to climate change. EOS, transaction of the American Geophysical Union 87: 233, 238, 241.
Vechhi, G.A., Swanson, K.L. and Sodden, B.J. 2008. Whither hurricane activity? Science 322: 687-689.