Historical Simulations of an Astronomically-Based Climate Model vs. Those of the Global Circulation Models Promoted by the IPCC
Scafetta, N. 2012. Testing an astronomically based decadal-scale empirical harmonic climate model versus the IPCC (2007) general circulation climate models. Journal of Atmospheric and Solar-Terrestrial Physics: 10.1016/j.jastp.2011.12.005.
In doing so, Scafetta reports that all of the GCMs that were studied by the IPCC (2007) "seriously fail to properly reconstruct even the large multi-decadal oscillations found in the global surface temperature record," but he demonstrates that his astronomical empirical harmonic model is "capable of reconstructing and, more importantly, forecasting the decadal and multi-decadal oscillations found in the global surface temperature with a sufficiently good accuracy."
The researcher - who hails from the Active Cavity Radiometer Solar Irradiance Monitor Laboratory and Duke University at Durham, North Carolina (USA) - states that by not properly reconstructing the 20-year and 60-year natural cycles found in Earth's surface temperature record, "the IPCC GCMs have seriously overestimated the magnitude of the anthropogenic contribution to the recent global warming." And as a result, with respect to the future, he says that whereas the IPCC models project a warming of 1.0-3.6°C by the end of the current century, his model suggests a global warming in the range of 0.3-1.2°C by 2100, which is considerably more in line with the real-world and observation-based assessments of Earth's climate sensitivity that were empirically derived several years ago by Idso (1998) and more recently by Lindzen and Choi (2009, 2011).
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Scafetta, N. 2010. Empirical evidence for a celestial origin of the climate oscillations and its implications. Journal of Atmospheric and Solar-Terrestrial Physics 72: 951-970.
Scafetta, N. 2011. A shared frequency set between the historical mid-latitude aurora records and the global surface temperature. Journal of Atmospheric and Solar-Terrestrial Physics 74: 145-163.