Will Rising Seas Swamp Sydney, Australia by Century's End?
Boretti, A. 2012. Is there any support in the long term tide gauge data to the claims that parts of Sydney will be swamped by rising sea levels. Coastal Engineering 64: 161-167.
In an effort that looks to actual historical measurements of sea level change for enlightenment, Boretti consults "long term tide gauges recording sea levels worldwide as well as along the coastline of Australia and within the bay of Sydney." And what does he find?
Firstly, Boretti reports that "the worldwide average tide gauge result obtained considering all the data included in the Permanent Service for Mean Sea Level data base show a modest sea level rise and about zero acceleration." Second, he notes that "the Fort Denison, Sydney tide gauge result shows the same modest sea level rise and about zero acceleration in perfect agreement with the worldwide result." Third, he indicates that "the Fremantle tide gauge result, the only other tide gauge operational in Australia over more than a century, shows the same modest sea level rise and about zero acceleration in perfect agreement with the worldwide result and the result of Sydney." And fourth, he indicates that "the other tide gauges operational along the coastline of Australia over shorter time scales of 30 to 40 years on average also show the lack of any acceleration component in the rate of rise of sea levels."
In completing his analysis, Boretti thus concludes, quite logically, that the "rise of sea level in the bay of Sydney by 2100 is therefore more likely less than the 50 mm measured so far over the last 100 years, rather than the meter [1000 mm] predicted by some models," the latter of which would appear to be the source of "inspiration" for the Australian government's pronouncements.