Predicting Decadal to Multi-Decadal Variability in Precipitation
Ault, T.R., Cole, J.E. and St. George, S. 2012. The amplitude of decadal to multidecadal variability in precipitation simulated by state-of-the-art climate models. Geophysical Research Letters 39: 10.1929/2012GL053424.
The three U.S. researchers say their results suggest that "CMIP5 simulations of the historical era (1850-2005) underestimate the importance [of] D2M variability in several regions where such behavior is prominent and linked to drought," namely, "northern Africa (e.g., Giannini et al., 2008), Australia (Cai et al., 2009; Leblanc et al., 2012), western North America (Seager, 2007; Overpeck and Udall, 2010), and the Amazon (Marengo et al., 2011)." Ault et al. further add that "the mismatch between 20th century observations and simulations suggests that model projections of the future may not fully represent all sources of D2M variations," noting that "if observed estimates of decadal variance are accurate, then the current generation of models depict D2M precipitation fluctuations that are too weak, implying that model hindcasts and predictions may be unable to capture the full magnitude of realizable D2M fluctuations in hydroclimate," with the result that "the risk of prolonged droughts and pluvials in the future may be greater than portrayed by these models."
Cai, W., Cowan, T., Briggs, P. and Raupach, M. 2009. Rising temperature depletes soil moisture and exacerbates severe drought conditions across southeast Australia. Geophysical Research Letters 36: 10.1029/2009GL040334.
Giannini, A., Biasutti, M., Held, I.M. and Sobel, A.H. 2008. A global perspective on African climate. Climatic Change 90: 359-383.
Leblanc, M., Tweed, S., Van Dijk, A. and Timbal, B. 2012. A review of historic and future hydrological changes in the Murray-Darling Basin. Global and Planetary Change 80-81: 226-246.
Marengo, J.A., Tomasella, J., Alves, L.M., Soares, W.R. and Rodriguez, D.A. 2011. The drought of 2010 in the context of historical droughts in the Amazon region. Geophysical Research Letters 38: 10.1029/2011GL047436.
Overpeck, J. and Udall, B. 2010. Dry times ahead. Science 328: 1642-1643.
Rudolf, B., Beck, C., Grieser, J. and Schneider, U. 2005. Global Precipitation Analysis Products of Global Precipitation Climatology Centre (GPCC). Technical Report. Dtsch. Wetterdienst, Offenbach, Germany.
Seager, R. 2007. The turn of the century North American drought: Global context, dynamics, and past analogs. Journal of Climate 20: 5527-5552.