Corals Moving Northward in the Western Mediterranean Seas
Serrano, E., Coma, R., Ribes, M., Weitzmann, B., Garcia, M. and Ballesteros, E. 2013. Rapid northward spread of a zooxanthellate coral enhanced by artificial structures and sea warming in the Western Mediterranean. PLOS ONE 8: e52739.
Unfazed by this contention, Serrano et al. (1) analyzed a long-term, large-scale observational dataset to characterize the dynamics of a hermatypic coral (Oculina patagonica) in regard to its "recent northward range shift along the coast of Catalonia" and (2) examined "the main factors that could have influenced this spread," which they did "by monitoring 223 locations including natural and artificial habitats along >400 km of coastline over the last 19 years (1992-2010)."
In describing their findings, the six Spanish scientists report that the abundance of Oculina patagonica "increased from being present in one location in 1992 to occur on 19% of the locations in 2010, and exhibited an acceleration of its spreading over time driven by the joint action of neighborhood and long-distance dispersal," noting further that the "northward expansion has occurred at the fastest rate (22 km per year) reported for a coral species thus far."
In discussing the significance of their findings, Serrano et al. write that "a coral species with particular biological characteristics that allow it to withstand the temperature challenge that accompanies northward migration as well as the natural and anthropogenic side effects that this type of migration involves (i.e., competition with macroalgae, high sediment loads, turbidity, water chemistry) has accomplished a successful northward expansion and may be able to keep pace with the global warming prediction of ~3°C over the next 100 years." And if one species of coral can do so, it is likely that many species of coral can do so.
IPCC. 2007. Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Solomon, S.D., Qin, M., Manning, Z., Marquis, M., Averyt, K., Tignor, M.B., Miller Jr., H.L. and Chen, Z. (Eds.). Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom.
Wooddroffe, C.D. 2011. Poleward extension of reefs. In: Hopley, D. (Ed.). Encyclopedia of Modern Coral Reefs: Structure, Form and Process. Springer-Verlag, Berlin, Germany, pp. 813-815.