Storm-Track Activity: Modeled vs. Measured
Chang, E.K.M., Guo, Y., Xia, X. and Zheng, M. 2013. Storm-track activity in IPCC AR4/CMIP3 model simulations. Journal of Climate 26: 246-260.
The four researchers report that (1) "only 2 of the 17 models have both the Northern Hemisphere [NH] and Southern Hemisphere [SH] storm-track activity within 10% of that based on ERA-Interim," (2) "four models simulate storm tracks that are either both significantly (>20%) too strong or too weak," (3) "the SH to NH ratio of storm-track activity ... is biased in some model simulations due to biases in midtropospheric temperature gradients," (4) "storm tracks in most CMIP3 models exhibit an equatorward bias in both hemispheres," (5) "some models exhibit biases in the amplitude of the seasonal cycle," (6) models having a strong (weak) bias in storm-track activity also have a strong (weak) bias in poleward eddy momentum and heat fluxes, suggesting that wave-mean flow interactions may not be accurately simulated by these models," and (7) "preliminary analyses of Fifth Assessment Report (AR5)/CMIP5 model data suggest that CMIP5 model simulations also exhibit somewhat similar behaviors."
Given such biases listed above, it appears that it may yet be some time before the models will be able to provide any solid information about storm tracks in the future..
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