Simulated Climate Change Impacts on Streamflow in Vietnam's Be River Catchment
Khoi, D.N. and Suetsugi, T. 2012. Uncertainty in climate change impacts on streamflow in Be River Catchment, Vietnam. Water and Environment Journal 26: 530-539.
At the conclusion of their study, the two Vietnamese researchers report finding that "the greatest source of uncertainty in impact of climate change on streamflow is GCM structure (choice of GCM)." And they say that this result "is in accordance with findings of other authors who also suggest that the choice of the GCM is the largest source of uncertainty in hydrological projection," citing Kingston and Taylor (2010), Kingston et al. (2011), Nobrega et al. (2011), Thorne (2011) and Xu et al. (2011)," adding that the range of uncertainty could increase even further if the analysis employed a larger number of GCMs.
In the concluding words of Khoi and Suetsugi, their findings (and those of many others) indicate that "single GCM or GCMs ensemble mean evaluations of climate change impact are unlikely to provide a representative depiction of possible future changes in streamflow." And that is saying a lot!
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