Wind Speeds over China: AR5 Climate Models vs. Real-World Data
Chen, L., Pryor, S.C. and Li, D. 2012. Assessing the performance of Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change AR5 climate models in simulating and projecting wind speeds over China. Journal of Geophysical Research 117: 10.1029/2012JD017533.
In an attempt to determine what progress may have subsequently been made in this area of climate modeling, Chen et al. quantified and compared "the magnitude, historical trends and temporal variability in 10-m wind speeds derived from direct observations, reanalysis products and output from AOGCMs," using nine more up-to-date CMIP-5 models that are to be featured in the upcoming IPCC AR5 report. And what did they find?
In the blunt but true words of the three researchers, "all models exhibit lower interannual variability than reanalysis data and observations, and none of the models reproduce the recent decline in wind speed that is manifest in the near-surface observations [italics added]." Progress, therefore, in this specific area of climate model development subsequent to the prior IPCC report could well be described as pitiful ... because there simply was no progress.
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