Modelling Thermal Characteristics of the Cold Point-Tropopause
Kim, J., Grise, K.M. and Son, S.-W. 2013. Thermal characteristics of the cold-point tropopause region in CMIP5 models. Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres 118: 8827-8841.
In discussing their findings, Kim et al. report that "the models have several notable limitations" and "show non-negligible biases in several aspects." Enumerating a few of the most significant problems, they state that "(1) most models have a warm bias around the CPT, (2) large intermodal differences occur in the amplitude of the seasonal cycle in 100 hPa temperature, (3) several models overestimate lower stratospheric warming in response to volcanic aerosols, (4) temperature variability associated with the quasi-biennnial oscillation and Madden-Julian oscillation is absent in most models, and (5) equatorial waves near the CPT exhibit a wide range of variations among the models."
As a result of these and other problems, Kim et al. conclude "the fine-scale processes that govern stratospheric water vapor and the CPT temperature are unlikely to be well represented in CMIP5 models," and "the coarse vertical resolution of the models and their non-negligible biases in the climatology, seasonal cycle and variability of the tropical tropopause layer limit their accuracy in the assessment of past, present and future climates."
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