Modeling European Temperatures: CMIP5 Biases and Uncertainty
Cattiaux, J., Douville, H. and Peings, Y. 2013. European temperatures in CMIP5: origins of present-day biases and future uncertainties. Climate Dynamics 41: 2889-2907.
In this self-imposed task, Cattiaux et al. evaluated 33 GCMs that participated in the CMIP5 project, based on comparisons they made between various model output parameters for the period 1979-2008 and corresponding real-world observations. In doing so, the three researchers report that (1) "on average, CMIP5 models exhibit a cold bias in winter, especially in Northern Europe," that (2) "they over-estimate summer temperatures in Central Europe," that (3) they predict "a greater diurnal range than observed," and that (4) "in winter, CMIP5 models simulate a stronger North Atlantic jet stream than observed."
In light of the fact that the parameters evaluated by Cattiaux et al. were rather basic - almost mundane, in fact - it is surprising to find that the latest and greatest in GCMs did not come through with flying colors.